Betting Experts Tracking the Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl Odds: September 2023

Fact Checked by Shannon Lane
Bijan Robinson at Falcons Minicamp

Key Takeaways:

  • 📊 The Falcons Super Bowl odds are +6500, improving slightly since May 2023, when they were at +7000.
  • 🏆 Using implied probability, the Falcons have a 1.5% chance to win Super Bowl LVIII.
  • 📈 Atlanta's Super Bowl odds rank 26th among NFL teams league-wide and 12th among teams in the NFC.

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of their second consecutive season at 7-10 and will look to take a big leap in HC Arthur Smith's second year with the team. They've made plenty of moves, both in free agency and the draft, which point to a move in the right direction. However, the Falcons playoff chances still indicate a monstrous uphill battle before they're even considered to be the best team in the NFC South, let alone the entire league.

With second-year QB Desmond Ridder the starter for the 2023 NFL season, many question whether this team has what it takes to break their five-year playoff drought. Undoubtedly, they've set him up for success with some firepower on offense, surrounding him with talents such as rookie RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts, but how he puts it all together will be the key in a make-or-break season for the third-round quarterback moving forward.

Falcons Super Bowl 58 Odds: September 26, 2023

The Falcons Super Bowl odds are +6500, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Their odds have improved slightly from +7000 in May of 2023, signaling an increased probability to win the Super Bowl, even though that probability still remains quite low at 1.5%.

🏆 Odds to Win SBLVIII+6500
👑 Odds to Win NFC+2800
Odds to Win NFC South+240
🔥 Odds to Make Playoffs+130
Odds to Miss Playoffs-150
Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 26, 2023

Odds for the Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl this season are currently set at +6500 on DraftKings Sportsbook, signaling oddsmakers aren't particularly close to dubbing them an NFL juggernaut. Nor are they ready to name them an NFC contender, with odds to win the conference at +2800 — ranking 9th among NFC teams.

Where the Falcons do show some promise (and perhaps the odds are showing some value) is in their odds to make the playoffs (+130), and particularly their odds to win the NFC South (+240). Given the question marks throughout the division (Derek Carr's potential in NO, the Bucs lack of a franchise QB, and the Panthers' development years with Bryce Young), a division title could be the Falcons path of least resistance to making the 2023 NFL postseason.

Falcons Super Bowl Odds vs. NFC South

The Atlanta Falcons have the second-lowest Super Bowl odds in the NFC South at +6500, behind only the New Orleans Saints at +3500. Both the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have their odds installed at +8000 ahead of the season — tied for 29th among NFL teams, ahead of just the Colts (+10000), Texans and Cardinals (both at +20000).

The NFC South is widely considered one of the least competitive divisions in the league, however. At least one of these teams has to make the postseason based on the current NFL playoff format, giving the phrase "Any Given Sunday" a true meaning. Considering the state of the division, oddsmakers have it right here — though I'd argue the gap between the Saints and Falcons is smaller than we might guess based on the Falcons slow (but steady) build through the offseason.

Falcons Week-by-Week Super Bowl Odds

Following the completion of OTAs, the Falcons odds to win Super Bowl LVIII imply a 1.5% chance for Atlanta to win the Big Game.

Be sure to bookmark this article, as I'll continue updating the Falcons Super Bowl chances after each matchup this season, starting in Week 1.

Latest Updates Impacting Falcons Odds to Win SB LVIII

Though the Falcons have had a solid (and perhaps underrated) offseason, there haven't been many moves oddsmakers would consider "needle-movers" in terms of their chances to win Super Bowl LVIII. Here's a look at some of the highlights:

  • 📆 June 7: Falcons primary punt returner Avery Williams is declared out for the season after suffering a torn ACL in OTAs.
  • 📆 April 27-29: The Falcons draft Texas running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick. The Falcons other selections in the 2023 NFL Draft include G Matthew Bergeron (drafted 38th overall), EDGE Zach Harrison (78th), CB Clark Phillips (113th), S DeMarco Hellams (224th), and G Jovaughn Gwyn (225th). Notably, the team did not draft a quarterback.
  • 📆 April 15: The Falcons sign former Steelers and Titans LB Bud Dupree to a 1-year deal worth up to $5 million.
  • 📆 April 11: The Falcons trade a 2023 fifth-round draft pick to the Detroit Lions in exchange for CB Jeff Okudah. Okudah was drafted No. 3 overall by the Lions in 2020 but
  • 📆 March 31: The Falcons sign defensive end Calais Campbell to a 1-year contract, worth $7 million guaranteed and up to $9 million including incentives.
  • 📆 March 28: HC Arthur Smith names QB Desmond Ridder as the team's intended starter for the 2023 NFL season.
  • 📆 March 14: Falcons sign QB Taylor Henicke to a two-year contract with $6.3 million guaranteed, the presumable backup for second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder.
  • 📆 February 28: QB Marcus Mariota, the Falcons starter in 2022, is released.
  • 📆 January 30: The Falcons hire veteran Jerry Grey as their assistant head coach, further emphasizing the team's drive to improve their defense. Grey had spent the past three seasons as the Packers' defensive backs coach and defensive passing game coordinator.
  • 📆 January 27: Ryan Nielson is hired as the Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator. Nielson spent the 2022 NFL season with the New Orleans Saints as the co-defensive coordinator and defensive line coach.

Be sure to bookmark this page, as I'll continue to update you with the latest Atlanta Falcons news and how it affects the Falcons chances to win Super Bowl LVIII.

Falcons Schedule and Betting Lines

The Falcons schedule was released in May 2023, and DraftKings Sportsbook has assigned game lines Atlanta's upcoming matchups this season. Here's a look at where point spreads and moneylines currently stand for the Falcons:

📅 Week 1 vs. Carolina Panthers🏈 Falcons -3, ML -155
📅 Week 2 vs. Green Bay Packers🏈 Falcons -1, ML -115
📅 Week 3 @ Detroit Lions🏈 Falcons +5, ML +180
📅 Week 4 @ Jacksonville Jaguars🏈 Falcons +4, ML +155
📅 Week 5 vs. Houston Texans🏈 Falcons -3, ML -165
📅 Week 6 vs. Washington Commanders🏈 TBD
📅 Week 7 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers🏈 Falcons -1, ML -115
📅 Week 8 @ Tennessee Titans🏈 Falcons +1, ML -105
📅 Week 9 vs. Minnesota Vikings🏈 Falcons +1, ML -105
📅 Week 10 @ Arizona Cardinals🏈 Falcons -2.5, ML -140
📅 Week 11🏈 BYE
📅 Week 12 vs. New Orleans Saints🏈 Falcons +1, ML -115
📅 Week 13 @ New York Jets🏈 Falcons +6.5, ML +230
📅 Week 14 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers🏈 Falcons -3, ML -155
📅 Week 15 @ Carolina Panthers🏈 Falcons +1, ML -105
📅 Week 16 vs. Indianapolis Colts🏈 Falcons -2.5, ML -130
📅 Week 17 @ Chicago Bears🏈 Falcons +2, ML +105
📅 Week 18 @ New Orleans Saints🏈 Falcons +2.5, ML +125
Data Verified by ExpertSeptember 26, 2023

Based on projected win totals, the Atlanta Falcons have the second-easiest strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Contributing to their easy schedule is the fact that the Falcons belong to the NFC South, which isn't considered an overly competitive division.

Looking at each game's odds, oddsmakers have identified the Lions, Jaguars, and Jets as their biggest projected losses of the season.

Key Contributors Toward Falcons Super Bowl Odds

For the Atlanta Falcons, 2023 is bound to be a key year in terms of development, from both the players and the coaching staff. Leading the pack, of course, will be Head coach Arthur Smith, who will look to improve upon the team's 7-10 record in his first two seasons.

Interestingly, despite the Falcons Super Bowl odds sitting at +6500 (implying a very low likelihood they'll win), Smith ranks relatively high in the ranks to win 2023 NFL Coach of the Year. His odds in the month of June are at +1600 — tied for the 5th-highest odds among all coaches.

Other key players for the Atlanta Falcons will include rookie RB Bijan Robinson. Undeniably, oddsmakers project his skillset out of Texas to immediately translate to the pros, now sitting as the odds-favorite to win 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year at +250. They'll also have second-year RB Tyler Allgeier, who found plenty of success of his own, breaking the Falcons' franchise record for most rushing yards by a rookie (1,035) in the 2022 season.

Then, there's WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts. There isn't much to question here in terms of talent, arguably ranking in the Top 3 players in their respective positions. London showed plenty of flashes in 2022, as well, having totaled 866 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his rookie season despite a general lack of offensive production from the team. Where the real uncertainty lies is with QB Desmond Ridder, entering his second season after a quiet rookie campaign.

Generally speaking, the team has done a good job of building up the defense as well, between additions to the coaching staff and free-agent signings. Key additions for the defensive line include DE Calais Campbell and LB Bud Dupree, who combined for 9.5 sacks, 54 total tackles (10 for a loss), and 23 QB hits in the 2022 NFL season.

In the secondary, the Falcons signed S Jessie Bates III to a whopping 4-year, $64 million contract to make him the fourth-highest-paid player at the position. He'll play a crucial role in run support, having ranked top-seven among safeties in run defense grade in two of the last three seasons, per Pro Football Focus.

Where Can I Bet on the Atlanta Falcons to Win the Super Bowl?

You can bet on the Atlanta Falcons to win Super Bowl LVIII at all major sportsbooks, including BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel, and DraftKings. Though odds vary across the major sportsbooks, oddsmakers across the board are low on the Falcons to win the Super Bowl in 2024.

Keep in mind that sports betting isn't legal in the state of Georgia, so bettors will need to travel to a neighboring state, such as Tennessee, in order to bet on the Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl.

Falcons Super Bowl LVIII Outlook and Predictions

Though the Falcons have added some key playmakers to improve their playoff chances in the 2023 NFL season, their outlook to win Super Bowl LVIII is generally bleak. Arthur Smith has improved the trajectory of this team overall, but given the competition, they'll face at the top of the NFC, the Falcons chances to win the Super Bowl are quite low at 1.5%.

Falcons Super Bowl History

The Atlanta Falcons have never won a Super Bowl, making them one of the 12 teams still seeking their first championship. The Falcons have made two Super Bowl appearances in franchise history (1998, 2016), losing to the Broncos and Patriots, respectively, in those games.

Have the Falcons Ever Won the Super Bowl?

No. The Falcons have never won the Super Bowl. They are one of 12 teams who have yet to win a Super Bowl, including the Bengals, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Chargers, Jaguars, Lions, Panthers, Texans, Titans, and Vikings.

How Many Super Bowls Have the Atlanta Falcons Won?

The Falcons have never won a Super Bowl, making them one of 12 teams yet to do so in their franchise history. Their two Super Bowl appearances came in the 1998 and 2016 seasons.

Which Years Did the Falcons Go to the Super Bowl?

The Falcons have gone to the Super Bowl twice in franchise history in the 1998 and 2016 seasons.

  • 🏈 2016-17, lost Super Bowl LI vs. New England Patriots 28-24 in OT: The Falcons lost to the Patriots after holding an infamous 28-3 lead in the third quarter — the largest blown lead in Super Bowl history.
  • 🏈 1998-1999, lost Super Bowl XXXIII vs. Denver Broncos 34-19: After going 14-2 in the regular season under head coach Dan Reeves, the Falcons fell to the Broncos 34-19 in the Super Bowl, handing Denver their second consecutive Super Bowl win.

Super Bowl XXXIII proved to be game MVP John Elway's final game in his NFL playing career.

Super Bowl LI is now synonymous with blown leads and QB Tom Brady's ability to erase deficits. Then-QB Matt Ryan had a stellar game statistically all things considered: 2 TDs, no interceptions and a 144.1 passer rating. However, the Falcons famously (or infamously) blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead to the Patriots, who forced the game into the first-ever overtime in Super Bowl history. Patriots WR Julian Edelman made a near-impossible shoestring catch to keep New England's hopes alive, which has gone down in Super Bowl history.

How Many Times Have the Falcons Been to the NFC Championship Game?

The Atlanta Falcons have been to four NFC Championships in their franchise history, including appearances in 1998, 2004, 2012, and, most recently, 2016.

The Falcons hold two NFC titles, which they won in the 1998 and 2016 NFC Championship games over the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, respectively. Unfortunately for Falcons fans, they went on to lose both of those Super Bowl appearances earned with their NFC title.

Falcons Preseason Super Bowl Odds Every Year Since 2000

The Falcons Super Bowl LVIII odds are currently +6500, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. These are more favorable preseason odds than the Falcons have had in each of the last two seasons, though it's a far cry from the days of Matt Ryan. Here's a look at the Falcons' preseason odds from past years.

📆 2022-2023Preseason Odds = +25000
📆 2021-2022Preseason Odds = +8000
📆 2020-2021Preseason Odds = +5000
📆 2019-2020Preseason Odds = +3000
📆 2018-2019Preseason Odds = +1400
📆 2017-2018Preseason Odds = +1600
📆 2016-2017Preseason Odds = +8000
📆 2015-2016Preseason Odds = +4000
📆 2014-2015Preseason Odds = +6000
📆 2013-2014Preseason Odds = +1600
📆 2012-2013Preseason Odds = +2200
📆 2011-2012Preseason Odds = +1600
📆 2010-2011Preseason Odds = +2800
📆 2009-2010Preseason Odds = +2500
📆 2008-2009Preseason Odds = +20000
📆 2007-2008Preseason Odds = +6000
📆 2006-2007Preseason Odds = +3000
📆 2005-2006Preseason Odds = +2000
📆 2004-2005Preseason Odds = +2000
📆 2003-2004Preseason Odds = +1200
📆 2002-2003Preseason Odds = +5000
📆 2001-2002Preseason Odds = +6000
📆 2000-2001Preseason Odds = +3500

The Falcons Super Bowl odds have gotten dramatically shorter (implying an increased likelihood) since the 2022-23 season, when they were at +25000.

Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl FAQs


Kate Magdziuk is an NFL betting expert for, focusing on the Atlanta Falcons. She's written for NBC Sports Rotoworld, DraftKings Nation, Gaming Society, and 4for4 Fantasy Football. She'll track the Falcons playoff chances and Super Bowl odds, where she'll use her expertise in fantasy football and sports betting to deliver the most up-to-date information available for Georgia bettors.

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